HD Radio, Steve Fossett, and Sir Richard Branson
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There are many persons who I believe show us how life is to be lived, instead of the other way around. They envision, plan, and pursue with passion, bucking believers in limitations by demonstrating that things don't have to be done the way they've been done before. Often these "leaders" reached goals which make up our fantasies, and that the rest of us can only experience vicariously.
Steve Jobs, Bill Gates, Warren Buffett, Sir Richard Branson, and Steve Fossett fit today's group of "do it my way" people. To keep this politically correct, Mary Kay Ash (of cosmetics), author J.K. Rowlings (Harry Potter), and Senator Hillary Clinton are also on my list.
It was reading an article in Time Magazine about Sir Richard's comments on recently-lost adventurer Steve Fossett when my mind wandered, searching for this same makeup of person within the radio industry.
I am (in the words of respected classical station owner Dr. Robert Conrad in Cleveland) an 'old fart' in radio, so it's not hard to pull names like Bill Drake, Ron Jacobs, or Milton Maltz from memory. But in scanning recent years, I'm hard-pressed to come up with a name that makes an impression equal to any of the above.
Now, these thoughts started with an article about Richard Branson speaking highly of Steve Fossett prior to Fossett's small plane going down in the wildlands of Nevada. His comments included one about Fossett developing an "acute understanding of risk" - which is where this story ties itself to radio, its current leaders, and their decision to pursue a vision that seems to contain no plan.
Reports are surfacing today that the HD Digital Radio Alliance has renewed its charter, and that $230 million more will be invested in promoting HD Radio in 2008.
It's not the parallel of these two thoughts - about leaders and HD Radio - that stands out. It's their divergence concerning "risk."
Has the HD Radio Alliance done a proper risk analysis for investing another $230 million to sell this failed (present tense) technology?
Here's what has happened with HD Radio to date: nothing. Here's what investing another $230 million means for broadcast radio's audience: another year of being pounded with HD Radio commercials that aren't drawing interest. Finally, here's what that investment by the radio industry means to its bottom line: All of these former radio advertisers are now getting free mentions on radio while they cut back the amount they used to spend for advertising.
"Risk assessment is measuring two quantities of the risk R, the magnitude of the potential loss L, and the probability P that the loss will occur." (Wikipedia) The US Government's GOA report on Risk Management is here. It might do well for the board of HD Digital Radio Alliance to reconsider what's ahead before extending this HD Radio debacle another year.
It might also do well if this board of radio executives released details on where the past two years of promotion have gotten HD Radio. How about one item such as how many HD Radios have been sold? How many programmers are concentrating solely on the creation of new HD Radio formats, without being encumbered by also having to program their broadcast station(s)? Or, how about the deal with BMW, and whatever other car dealers are using the free radio promotional plugs for HD? How many HD Radios have been installed? And the most telling of all questions: How many people are actually listening to any of these "stations between the stations"?
Risk is inherent with any new venture. But when establishing something that's never been tried before, it seems in all cases those persons who've showed us how to live life (instead of the other way around) envisioned, planned and pursued with passion in a methodical way - matching hype with results in each step.
When it comes to HD Radio and the executives that are leading this charge into nowhere, they got the part about envisioning right.
It's just that the planning and pursuit with passion were traded off with desperation to find a digital technology they could attach to and the need to pursue because of a requirement to catch up with the world. (There's no room for passion when desperate.)
Now I'm back to thinking about names of "do it my way" people in the radio industry. There are dozens of names to choose from. Yet, only one fits the requirements Sir Richard Branson outlined in his respectful article about a missing Steve Fossett - and that is Jerry Lee,
WBEB-FM/Philadelphia owner.
HD Radio is not dead, but the life support system it's on is malfunctioning.
It's time for radio to heavily invest in this new product with cash, not traded airtime, to give free hand to young programmers who can create programming for tomorrow, and to start being honest about HD Radio's "success" to date.
These elements need to be addressed today, not by the end of this week. If they're not, HD Digital Radio will remain as lost as that small plane in which Steve Fossett took off from that small Nevada airport - where, it's my guess, this giant of leaders did not assess the risk in not filing a flight plan.
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